A fall in oil investment is expected to contribute to mainland Norway’s GDP increasing by just 1.2 per cent in 2015, Statistics Norway (SSB) reports.
They expect that a moderate production upswing will take effect early next year, but that this will not prevent unemployment from also rising in 2016.
The weak production development has contributed to weak growth in employment and to unemployment rising from 3.2 per cent in spring 2014 to 4.1 per cent in the last four months. We expect further increases, peaking at 4.3 per cent in 2016.
A clear fall in oil investments has been a strong contributor to the slowing activity growth in the Norwegian economy since last summer. Demand from the mainland, excluding general government, has also consistently seen a weak development, and export growth has been modest. From early 2016, SSB expect, however, increased momentum in exports, slightly higher growth in household demand and somewhat higher growth in business investments on the mainland. This, together with strong growth in public demand, will have a clear positive impact on economic growth despite the fact that investment in the petroleum industry is expected to continue falling somewhat throughout 2016.
The growth in mainland Norway’s GDP is expected to pick up further in 2017, reaching 3.2 per cent, SSB writes.